Democrats Can Chart Path Forward to Flip Seat with Venezuelan-American Entrepreneur
As national leaders build off last week’s major upsets in a pair of legislative races in Palm and Hillsborough Counties, Florida’s 28th congressional district is now poised to be a battleground district. A March 2026 survey of 514 likely general election voters in Florida’s 28th Congressional District reveals a highly competitive race with significant structural vulnerabilities for incumbent Republican Carlos Gimenez—and a clear opening for potential Democratic challenger Hector Mujica. Gimenez holds a nominal lead in the initial ballot (46% to 40%), but that margin is built on a fragile foundation: a politically toxic environment for Republicans and a district where the defining issues—affordability and corruption—favor a challenger.
I. THE ENVIRONMENT: REPUBLICAN HEADWINDS
Gimenez and Trump Are Both Underwater Among NPAs
Despite strong Republican base support, both Gimenez and Trump carry only narrow positive favorability in the electorate overall and negative net favorability among NPAs.
Key Issue Environment Favors Democrats
Voters ranked the following issues as important: Affordability (25% ranked #1, 52% top 3), Corruption (23% ranked #1, 56% top 3), and Immigration (12% ranked #1, 40% top 3). Given the state of the economy, national and local narratives around corruption, and the administration’s immigration policies, these issues are liabilities for Gimenez.
Trump Policies Are Divisive—Even in a GOP-Leaning District
Several signature Trump policy positions test negatively district-wide, and are particularly toxic with NPA voters:
ICE raids and mass deportations stand out as especially high-risk for Gimenez: while 90% of Republicans approve, NPA voters oppose by a 19-point margin.
II. THE BALLOT: A WINNABLE RACE
Generic Ballot and Head to Head Show a Competitive Race
In the initial named ballot test (Q4), Gimenez leads Mujica 46% to 40%—a 6-point margin with 14% undecided. Mujica clearly has room to grow, with a generic ballot showing the Congressional race within the margin of error. Critically, Mujica leads among NPA voters 39% to 34%—a 5-point advantage with 27% still undecided.
Florida CD-28 is a winnable race for Hector Mujica. Gimenez faces headwinds with:
- Negative net favorability among swing NPA voters (-9)
- Deep unpopularity of the Trump policy agenda he has vocally supported
- A concrete vulnerable vote record on healthcare and Medicaid
Mujica’s path to victory runs through NPA voters (where he is already ahead), and a worsening national environment for Republicans on the economy and foreign policy.
Survey conducted March 2026. N=514 likely general election voters, FL CD-28. Results were weighted by party, race, gender, geography, and age. Margin of error ±4.3% at 95% confidence.